Stock market outlook 01/2026: Where opportunities will open up for investors in 2026…

January 14, 2026

What has been the focus in recent months

The year 2025 was a real rollercoaster ride for investors in many respects. While a so-called 'risk-on' mood prevailed in many areas of the markets and riskier investments were in demand, classic 'safe haven' assets such as gold and the Swiss franc also made strong gains. Investors were looking for returns, but did not quite trust the situation. Geopolitical risks, rising government debt and political uncertainties played a major role here.

' On the equity side, the buy-the-dip mentality was remarkable '

The markets were volatile overall in 2025, particularly in the first half of the year. On the equity side, the buy-the-dip mentality was remarkable: practically all market declines were used to make purchases, as buyers reappeared at very short notice and a recovery set in.

Swiss equities were in particularly high demand towards the end of the year, and the stock market in this country experienced a veritable final spurt.

Our investment solutions and positioning

Our multi-asset solutions made significant gains in the past year. Our positioning in gold, which we have heavily overweighted since the beginning of the year, made a particularly large contribution to this. However, our clear positioning in the Swiss equity market also had a very positive impact on the overall result. At the turn of the year, we reduced our gold position slightly and instead increased our exposure to elements with a low correlation to the equity market. This means we are ideally positioned for a wide range of market phases.

Also with our Cross-Asset Fund Navigator we can look back on a very successful 2025. Thanks to active management, we were able to make targeted use of the increased volatility, particularly through selective positioning at individual stock level. Here, too, we have reduced our gold position in recent weeks and are currently slightly underweight compared to our average allocation of around 10%.

Our equity strategy Global Equity Trends lagged slightly behind global equities last year. One reason for this development was the relatively defensive positioning following the tariff announcements in April. Rapid trend reversals, such as those in April, are always a challenge for systematic trend strategies. However, we are convinced that we will always have the best opportunities for long-term trends thanks to our systematic approach.

After a volatile start to the past year, our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection made significant gains from August to the end of the year. The top performers included many well-known names such as Roche, Novartis and UBS. Kardex, Siegfried and Partners Group fell short of expectations. For the coming year, we continue to assess the opportunities for the Swiss equity market as very good by international standards.

After very strong years in 2023 and 2024, our equity strategy Global Equity Selection was unable to build on this in 2025. The extreme depreciation of the US dollar by 12.5 % against the Swiss franc had a very negative impact. In addition, there was little demand for quality stocks in a year characterized by AI (artificial intelligence) hype. In the long term, however, we remain convinced that high-quality equities will prevail in an international comparison – as we have seen time and again in the past.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

In 2026, we will once again be dealing with an extremely complex situation. The keywords here are: Erratic US policy, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, rising government debt and, on the equity side, a high market concentration in AI stocks with sporty valuations.

' 2026 should separate the wheat from the chaff in the AI sector '

Overall, however, we are positive for the investment year 2026 and expect a generally constructive environment. The US economy, but also the global economy in general, should develop positively. We also anticipate rising corporate profits – with solid balance sheets for large companies – and expect an increase in liquidity in the markets, at least for the first half of the year. Both are the most important long-term drivers for prices on the equity markets. Equities therefore remain an indispensable component of the portfolio and form a central building block for long-term real wealth preservation and inflation protection.

However, the sporty valuations and market concentrations in many places in the AI sector make a diversified and at the same time selective approach necessary. In 2026, the wheat is likely to be separated from the chaff in the AI sector: Who can really benefit from the sometimes immense investments in this area and who cannot will become apparent. The high valuations of these stocks offer considerable potential for negative surprises.

The Swiss franc and gold will remain in demand in the environment we expect in 2026. We also see the Swiss equity market as attractive. The valuations here are interesting and, at the same time, the strong international focus of our companies means that we have a certain degree of global diversification.

In addition to many other things, it is particularly important to keep an eye on the high level of government debt worldwide and how the bond markets are dealing with it: Will there continue to be enough buyers for government bonds or only at much higher interest rates?

The most important things for investors in the stock market year 2026 summarized:
In our opinion, staying invested, pursuing a diversified yet selective approach with a focus on quality and relying on a high proportion of liquid investments is the key to success in the new year. This secures the opportunity for returns while also taking good risk management into account.

Point Capital Group
January 14, 2026

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)