Stock market outlook 08/2025: Customs shock – markets between hope and unease

August 7, 2025

What has been the focus in recent weeks

Three key topics have dominated events on the stock markets in recent weeks: the latest developments in international trade, the ongoing reporting season and monetary policy expectations regarding inflation and interest rates.

The focus was particularly on US trade policy: new agreements as well as announcements and the formulation of tariffs by the Trump administration caused significant market reactions. The EU, Japan, China and, surprisingly, Switzerland were among those affected. The latter was hit with unexpectedly high US tariffs. However, the reaction of the Swiss stock market has been muted so far – not least because the future of the important pharmaceutical industry still leaves many questions unanswered.

The corporate figures for the second quarter paint a mixed picture: While many US companies surprised positively, the reporting season in Europe and Switzerland was rather mixed.

There is positive momentum from the monetary policy side: although the US Federal Reserve recently left interest rates unchanged, market participants are expecting a cut in September – a potential tailwind for many asset classes.

Our investment solutions and positioning

Our multi-asset solutions have once again performed stably over the past few weeks. We were able to benefit primarily from rising share prices outside Switzerland, while the Swiss equity market is still in a sideways phase. In July, we also added another uncorrelated element to the strategies. In this case, uncorrelated means that such investments can develop positively independently of the major asset classes such as equities and bonds. Such elements are very important for multi-asset strategies from a risk management perspective.

The equity strategy Global Equity Trends equity strategy made gains in July, with both stock selection and the US dollar contributing to the positive overall result. The high-flyers of recent weeks were to be found in high-growth segments such as IT and communications. However, the defensive utilities sector was also among the leaders.

The equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection equity strategy continues to suffer from the performance of the Swiss equity market as a whole and the three heavyweights Nestlé, Novartis and Roche in particular. On the other hand, there have been more encouraging developments in the financial sector. The shares of UBS, Swiss Re and Zurich Insurance are all on an upward trend. We would also like to mention the industrial companies ABB and Holcim. ABB’s quarterly results were celebrated by investors with a share price jump of almost ten percent. Although the reaction to Holcim was more muted, the flawless share price performance of recent years continues to speak for itself.

The development of the equity strategy Global Equity Selection equity strategy in recent weeks has been characterized by political uncertainties on the one hand and by companies’ quarterly results on the other. Some companies such as Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and the medical technology manufacturer Resmed were able to impress investors. On the other hand, well-known names such as Netflix and Proctor & Gamble were less popular with investors. However, both companies are still in solid long-term upward trends and we do not expect a trend reversal.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

Even though the markets have become increasingly accustomed to the erratic US trade policy and President Trump’s impulsive leadership style, the environment remains complex. Many economic signals are difficult to interpret. The financial robustness of many large companies is encouraging. In addition, possible interest rate cuts by central banks could at least partially cushion the negative effects of new US tariffs.

We currently see the greatest risk in a significant slowdown in the US economy. So far, however, such scenarios have failed to materialize – despite persistent warnings.

We expect the markets to take a wait-and-see approach in the short term. However, should there be an overreaction, we see this as an opportunity for selective purchases.

Point Capital Group
7. August 2025

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)