Stock market outlook 09/2025: Will the positive market sentiment continue?

September 4, 2025

What has been the focus in recent weeks

The month of August was generally positive for equity investors. Leading chip manufacturer Nvidia presented good figures, which continues to give momentum to the investment theme of AI (artificial intelligence). This is despite a recent study by the renowned American institute MIT showing that 95% of companies have not yet achieved any financially measurable benefits from the use of AI tools. The positive market development was also supported by the US Federal Reserve. Its chairman Jerome Powell indicated in a recent speech that he is open to lowering interest rates. Another positive factor for the markets was that the global economy has continued to perform better than generally expected since the beginning of the year.

Another notable development in August was the increase in market breadth. This means that the positive trend on the equity markets was relatively broad-based and not limited to just a few individual stocks – a good sign.

Our investment solutions and positioning

All our multi-asset solutions made further gains in August. The higher the risk tolerance, the stronger the growth. Our notable positioning in gold once again made a significant contribution to the pleasing result. But our exposure to Swiss and international equities also made their contribution. Once again, it was also advantageous to keep our foreign currency exposure very low. We still consider our positioning to be promising for various market scenarios and did not make any changes in August.

In our equity strategy Global Equity Trends the winners from July tended to bring up the rear in August, but this is no cause for concern after strong trend movements. The winners in recent weeks included companies from the energy sector and value stocks in general. Since the turn of the month, we have been newly invested in companies in the raw materials and basic materials sector. These have taken the place of consumer goods. The current focus therefore remains offensive.

Our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection has also made gains in recent weeks. This was due not least to the pleasing performance of the pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis. On the other hand, our financial stocks are currently in a sideways phase, but this does not alter the long-term positive outlook for these companies. Instead of Swisscom, we have decided to add Galderma to our portfolio. Following Swisscom’s very good performance in recent months, we believe that the further upside potential compared to Galderma is much lower in the medium to long term.

In the equity strategy Global Equity Selection we had to accept two setbacks in Fortinet and Intuit. Both companies failed to impress at the presentation of their quarterly results – but have been stable since then. On the other hand, some of the Swiss stocks in our portfolio, such as Novartis and Galderma, have performed very positively. Despite the somewhat weak August, we still feel that the current portfolio composition puts us in an excellent long-term position.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

Overall, there are certainly a few signs that point to a weakening of the economic cycle. However, these are not yet significant enough to position ourselves excessively defensively. Apart from an unexpected economic shock, there are currently no other scenarios that could cause a sharp and prolonged decline in the equity markets. We would therefore rather see a negative overreaction as a buying opportunity.

Point Capital Group
4. September 2025

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)