Stock market outlook 10/2025: Gold price – what’s next?

October 9, 2025

What has been the focus in recent weeks

The global surveys of purchasing managers confirm our assessment of only a moderate economic slowdown. This does not appear to be pronounced enough to jeopardize current economic growth, albeit with regional differences. The latest labour market data in the USA was mixed. This all leads to a favorable scenario for most markets, as it justifies further interest rate cuts by the Fed without the fear of a recession at present. Most asset classes have also performed positively in this environment in recent weeks.
Gold has continued to perform particularly well. The current gold rally is the result of a “cocktail” of many factors: purchases by central banks and at the same time increasingly by private investors, rising government debt worldwide, geopolitical uncertainties and the expectation of interest rate cuts. Even if we would not be surprised by increased volatility in the gold price, we do not expect a real trend reversal here and remain positive on gold.

Our investment solutions and positioning

The Swiss equity market staged a comeback towards the end of September, which our multi-asset solutions positively influenced our multi-asset solutions. As this could be the start of an overdue race to catch up internationally, we are maintaining our substantial position in domestic equities. Gold has also once again been one of the drivers of the positive trend in recent weeks. Even though the US dollar has continued to stabilize against the Swiss franc, we are keeping the foreign currency component of our strategies low in the current environment.

In our equity strategy Global Equity Trends all of our investments except for energy stocks have performed well. This also led us to divest the energy sector at the end of the month. Instead, we added cyclical consumer goods to the portfolio. The heavyweights in this sector are well-known names such as Amazon, Tesla and the American DIY chain Home Depot. The current positioning therefore remains offensive.

Over the course of September, we have been working on the equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection equity strategy and added Kardex to the portfolio instead. We believe that this innovative company, which is very well positioned in the field of warehouse technology and automation, has good long-term prospects. Of the existing positions, Richemont and ABB performed best. On the other hand, the Zurich Insurance Group and Lonza brought up the rear. In both cases, however, we currently see a correction rather than a trend reversal.

Since the low on the stock markets in April, demand has been dominated by high-growth companies. This was due to our equity strategy Global Equity Selection strategy. Quality has not been in great demand since then. The Canadian software company Constellation Software came under the most pressure. Following a surprising change of management at company level, the share price corrected to its lowest level for over a year. According to our assessment, however, there is currently no change in the long-term outlook. On the other hand, Alphabet (Google) performed the best. This was after a court ruling at the beginning of September was in the company’s favor.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

The fact that gold is shining so brightly at the moment shows: Even if the markets appear very stable on the surface, there is a certain amount of uncertainty. However, the current global situation does not remain unfavorable for the markets, although this is already generously priced in positively in most asset classes. A possible susceptibility to bad news will soon become apparent: The presentations of the company results for the third quarter are coming up. This is likely to lead to great volatility, particularly for some “high flyers” in the field of AI (artificial intelligence) – expectations are extremely high in some cases.
In addition, inflation in the US must continue to be monitored: This could well rise more sharply again and catch the markets on the wrong foot.
We are therefore focusing on a simple strategy for the coming months: quality over quantity. Quality companies that can raise their prices without losing customers and do not have high levels of debt are particularly valuable. When it comes to bonds, we prefer shorter maturities – this allows us to react flexibly if interest rates change. And gold remains an important anchor.
Stay vigilant, but don’t panic: The markets continue to offer good opportunities for investors in many places.

Point Capital Group
9. October 2025

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)