Stock market outlook 12/2025: When the air gets thinner…

December 8, 2025

What has been the focus in recent weeks

The market is clearing up – and that's a good thing.
November once again showed investors that not every month has to end in the green. After seven consecutive months of gains, the US S&P 500 just crossed the finish line with a minimal gain of 0.13 %. This is not weakness – this is health. Because what goes on behind the scenes is more important than the daily price level. The Swiss stock market was able to benefit from this sentiment and performed well thanks to its defensive nature. Anyone who only looked at the major indices this month missed the real story. While technology stocks came under pressure, the healthcare sector, for example, celebrated its best monthly result for a long time. The reason? The fear of AI shares overheating has spread further. The so-called 'Magnificent Seven' lost 750 billion US dollars in market value in the first week of November alone. Even the chip stock Nvidia, which has just presented very strong quarterly figures again, was unable to calm the nervousness. The question is no longer whether AI will change the world, but rather: Who will really make money from it?

The gold price regained its footing in November. So it wasn't a crash in October – it was a healthy consolidation after a year in which the yellow metal rose by over 50 %.

Our investment solutions and positioning

Our multi-asset solutions made gains across all risk categories in November despite the market turbulence. The prominent positioning in Swiss equities paid off.

The Cross-Asset Fund Navigator also continued to perform positively. At allocation level, the strategy benefited from its bond positioning and the renewed rise in gold. In addition, several selected equities recorded significant price gains. Since the beginning of the year, the fund's performance has already exceeded 13%.

The equity strategy Global Equity Trends equity strategy was volatile, but was able to recover its losses towards the end of November. Investments in tech stocks and companies in the raw materials and commodities sectors were the main drivers of this development.

Our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection made significant gains in November. During this volatile period, it was the healthcare stocks Roche and Galderma in our portfolio that made the biggest gains.

Thanks to some changes in the portfolio composition, our equity strategy Global Equity Selection also held up well last month. We are also confident about future developments and believe we are well positioned for various possible market scenarios thanks to our broader positioning.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

As expected, the US Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate by 0.25 % in October. However, the last mile of interest rate policy is becoming more complicated. Fed Chairman Powell has made it clear that a December cut is 'anything but a sure thing'. The unemployment rate is rising slightly, but sentiment in the consumer sector remains robust. In general, the US economy is developing positively, as is the global economy as a whole. This means that around 90% of market participants now expect interest rates to be cut, which would be positive for most asset classes. And, as always, this expectation is already priced into prices. This means that the potential for negative surprises is correspondingly high. The Fed will make its decision on Wednesday, December 10. But as always, if you have a long-term investment horizon or a broadly diversified asset allocation overall, you don't need to worry about these short-term issues.

Without a negative surprise from the Fed, we are confident of ending the year with further positive prices and the chances of a so-called Santa Claus rally are intact.

Point Capital Group
8. December 2025

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)