{"id":8934,"date":"2025-12-08T11:15:23","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T10:15:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/stock-market-outlook-12-2025-when-the-air-gets-thinner\/"},"modified":"2025-12-09T10:31:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T09:31:00","slug":"stock-market-outlook-12-2025-when-the-air-gets-thinner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/stock-market-outlook-12-2025-when-the-air-gets-thinner\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock market outlook 12\/2025: When the air gets thinner\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row type='in_container' full_screen_row_position='middle' column_margin='default' column_direction='default' column_direction_tablet='default' column_direction_phone='default' scene_position='center' text_color='dark' text_align='left' row_border_radius='none' row_border_radius_applies='bg' overflow='visible' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 gradient_direction='left_to_right' shape_divider_position='bottom' bg_image_animation='none'][vc_column column_padding='no-extra-padding' column_padding_tablet='inherit' column_padding_phone='inherit' column_padding_position='all' column_element_direction_desktop='default' column_element_spacing='default' desktop_text_alignment='default' tablet_text_alignment='default' phone_text_alignment='default' background_color_opacity='1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity='1\u2033 column_backdrop_filter='none' column_shadow='none' column_border_radius='none' column_link_target='_self' column_position='default' gradient_direction='left_to_right' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 width='1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit='default' animation_type='default' bg_image_animation='none' border_type='simple' column_border_width='none' column_border_style='solid'][fancy_box box_style='color_box_hover' icon_family='iconsmind' color='accent-color' color_box_hover_overlay_opacity='default' box_alignment='left' border_radius='none' image_loading='default' icon_iconsmind='iconsmind-Information']\n<h2>Briefly summarized:<\/h2>\n<hr>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<h4>Rotation instead of crash<\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<h4>AI euphoria cools down<\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<h4>Fed remains the pacemaker<\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n[\/fancy_box][vc_column_text css='' text_direction='default']<em>December 8, 2025<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>What has been the focus in recent weeks<\/h2>\n<p>The market is clearing up \u2013 and that's a good thing.<br \/>\nNovember once again showed investors that not every month has to end in the green. After seven consecutive months of gains, the US S&P 500 just crossed the finish line with a minimal gain of 0.13 %. This is not weakness \u2013 this is health. Because what goes on behind the scenes is more important than the daily price level. The Swiss stock market was able to benefit from this sentiment and performed well thanks to its defensive nature. Anyone who only looked at the major indices this month missed the real story. While technology stocks came under pressure, the healthcare sector, for example, celebrated its best monthly result for a long time. The reason? The fear of AI shares overheating has spread further. The so-called 'Magnificent Seven' lost 750 billion US dollars in market value in the first week of November alone. Even the chip stock Nvidia, which has just presented very strong quarterly figures again, was unable to calm the nervousness. The question is no longer whether AI will change the world, but rather: Who will really make money from it?           <\/p>\n<p>The gold price regained its footing in November. So it wasn't a crash in October \u2013 it was a healthy consolidation after a year in which the yellow metal rose by over 50 %.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type='in_container' full_screen_row_position='middle' column_margin='default' column_direction='default' column_direction_tablet='default' column_direction_phone='default' scene_position='center' text_color='dark' text_align='left' row_border_radius='none' row_border_radius_applies='bg' overflow='visible' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 gradient_direction='left_to_right' shape_divider_position='bottom' bg_image_animation='none'][vc_column column_padding='no-extra-padding' column_padding_tablet='inherit' column_padding_phone='inherit' column_padding_position='all' column_element_direction_desktop='default' column_element_spacing='default' desktop_text_alignment='default' tablet_text_alignment='default' phone_text_alignment='default' background_color_opacity='1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity='1\u2033 column_backdrop_filter='none' column_shadow='none' column_border_radius='none' column_link_target='_self' column_position='default' gradient_direction='left_to_right' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 width='1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit='default' animation_type='default' bg_image_animation='none' border_type='simple' column_border_width='none' column_border_style='solid'][vc_column_text css='' text_direction='default']\n<h2>Our investment solutions and positioning<\/h2>\n<p>Our <a href=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/multi-asset-strategy-investing-in-asset-classes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>multi-asset solutions<\/strong><\/a> made gains across all risk categories in November despite the market turbulence. The prominent positioning in Swiss equities paid off. <\/p>\n<p>The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Factsheet_LU0583074082_de_Nov2025.pdf\">Cross-Asset Fund Navigator<\/a><\/strong> also continued to perform positively. At allocation level, the strategy benefited from its bond positioning and the renewed rise in gold. In addition, several selected equities recorded significant price gains. Since the beginning of the year, the fund's performance has already exceeded 13%.   <\/p>\n<p>The equity strategy <a href=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/momentum-strategy-achieving-long-term-returns\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Global Equity Trends<\/strong><\/a> equity strategy was volatile, but was able to recover its losses towards the end of November. Investments in tech stocks and companies in the raw materials and commodities sectors were the main drivers of this development. <\/p>\n<p>Our equity strategy <a href=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/quality-shares-the-best-choice-for-your-investment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Swiss Equity Selection<\/strong><\/a> made significant gains in November. During this volatile period, it was the healthcare stocks Roche and Galderma in our portfolio that made the biggest gains. <\/p>\n<p>Thanks to some changes in the portfolio composition, our equity strategy <a href=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/quality-shares-the-best-choice-for-your-investment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Global Equity Selection<\/strong><\/a> also held up well last month. We are also confident about future developments and believe we are well positioned for various possible market scenarios thanks to our broader positioning.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type='in_container' full_screen_row_position='middle' column_margin='default' column_direction='default' column_direction_tablet='default' column_direction_phone='default' scene_position='center' text_color='dark' text_align='left' row_border_radius='none' row_border_radius_applies='bg' overflow='visible' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 gradient_direction='left_to_right' shape_divider_position='bottom' bg_image_animation='none'][vc_column column_padding='no-extra-padding' column_padding_tablet='inherit' column_padding_phone='inherit' column_padding_position='all' column_element_direction_desktop='default' column_element_spacing='default' desktop_text_alignment='default' tablet_text_alignment='default' phone_text_alignment='default' background_color_opacity='1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity='1\u2033 column_backdrop_filter='none' column_shadow='none' column_border_radius='none' column_link_target='_self' column_position='default' gradient_direction='left_to_right' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 width='1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit='default' animation_type='default' bg_image_animation='none' border_type='simple' column_border_width='none' column_border_style='solid'][vc_column_text css='' text_direction='default']\n<h2>What next? And what needs to be considered?<\/h2>\n<p>As expected, the US Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate by 0.25 % in October. However, the last mile of interest rate policy is becoming more complicated. Fed Chairman Powell has made it clear that a December cut is 'anything but a sure thing'. The unemployment rate is rising slightly, but sentiment in the consumer sector remains robust. In general, the US economy is developing positively, as is the global economy as a whole. This means that around 90% of market participants now expect interest rates to be cut, which would be positive for most asset classes. And, as always, this expectation is already priced into prices. This means that the potential for negative surprises is correspondingly high. The Fed will make its decision on Wednesday, December 10. But as always, if you have a long-term investment horizon or a broadly diversified asset allocation overall, you don't need to worry about these short-term issues.         <\/p>\n<p>Without a negative surprise from the Fed, we are confident of ending the year with further positive prices and the chances of a so-called Santa Claus rally are intact.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css='' text_direction='default']<em>Point Capital Group<br \/>\n8. December 2025<\/em>[\/vc_column_text][nectar_circle_images images='621,620\u2033 positioning='standard' alignment_desktop='left' alignment_tablet='inherit' alignment_phone='inherit' animation='none' image_size='large' image_loading='default'][vc_column_text css='' text_direction='default']Our experts: <a href=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/team\/\">Jules Kappeler<\/a> (CEO) & <a href=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/team\/\">Christian Sutter<\/a> (Portfolio Manager)[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column column_padding='no-extra-padding' column_padding_tablet='inherit' column_padding_phone='inherit' column_padding_position='all' column_element_direction_desktop='default' column_element_spacing='default' desktop_text_alignment='default' tablet_text_alignment='default' phone_text_alignment='default' background_color_opacity='1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity='1\u2033 column_backdrop_filter='none' column_shadow='none' column_border_radius='none' column_link_target='_self' column_position='default' gradient_direction='left_to_right' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 width='1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit='default' animation_type='default' bg_image_animation='none' border_type='simple' column_border_width='none' column_border_style='solid'][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type='in_container' full_screen_row_position='middle' column_margin='default' column_direction='default' column_direction_tablet='default' column_direction_phone='default' bg_color='rgba(63,75,111,0.2)' scene_position='center' text_color='dark' text_align='left' row_border_radius='none' row_border_radius_applies='bg' overflow='visible' class='border-box' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 gradient_direction='left_to_right' shape_divider_position='bottom' bg_image_animation='none' shape_type=''][vc_column column_padding='no-extra-padding' column_padding_tablet='inherit' column_padding_phone='inherit' column_padding_position='all' column_element_direction_desktop='default' column_element_spacing='default' desktop_text_alignment='default' tablet_text_alignment='default' phone_text_alignment='default' background_color_opacity='1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity='1\u2033 column_backdrop_filter='none' column_shadow='none' column_border_radius='none' column_link_target='_self' column_position='default' gradient_direction='left_to_right' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 width='1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit='default' animation_type='default' bg_image_animation='none' border_type='simple' column_border_width='none' column_border_style='solid']<div class=\"vc_row-fluid box-element-row newsletter-box\" style=\"text-align:left\"><div class=\"box-body\"><div class=\"box-body-inner-wrapper\"><div class=\"box-body-inner\"><p class=\"box-sub-title\">Newsletter<\/p><h3 class=\"box-title\">Gut informiert: Aktuelles zur Verm\u00f6gensanlage<\/h3><div class=\"box-content\">Mit uns sind Sie stets gut informiert! Wir liefern Ihnen News und wichtige Infos rund um das Thema Verm\u00f6gensanlage.<\/div><\/div><a style=\"background-color:#3f4b6f;color:#ffffff\" class=\"open-newsletter-form custom-box-btn \" href=\"#\"  ><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/wp-content\/themes\/salient-child\/img\/arrow-btn.svg\" \/>Newsletter abonnieren<\/a><\/div><div class=\"box-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/PCG_Newsletter.svg\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"Newsletter\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type='in_container' full_screen_row_position='middle' column_margin='default' column_direction='default' column_direction_tablet='default' column_direction_phone='default' scene_position='center' text_color='dark' text_align='left' row_border_radius='none' row_border_radius_applies='bg' overflow='visible' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 gradient_direction='left_to_right' shape_divider_position='bottom' bg_image_animation='none'][vc_column column_padding='no-extra-padding' column_padding_tablet='inherit' column_padding_phone='inherit' column_padding_position='all' column_element_direction_desktop='default' column_element_spacing='default' desktop_text_alignment='default' tablet_text_alignment='default' phone_text_alignment='default' background_color_opacity='1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity='1\u2033 column_backdrop_filter='none' column_shadow='none' column_border_radius='none' column_link_target='_self' column_position='default' gradient_direction='left_to_right' overlay_strength='0.3\u2033 width='1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit='default' animation_type='default' bg_image_animation='none' border_type='simple' column_border_width='none' column_border_style='solid'][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December 8, 2025 \u2013 Find out more about developments on the financial markets: When the air gets thinner\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8873,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[152,153],"tags":[156,160,155,157,154,163,162,159,158,161],"class_list":["post-8934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-insights","category-stock-market-outlook","tag-asset-manager","tag-financial-markets","tag-inflation","tag-interest","tag-stock-market","tag-stock-market-correction","tag-stock-market-crash","tag-stock-market-news","tag-stock-market-outlook","tag-trump"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8934"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8934\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8936,"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8934\/revisions\/8936"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pointcapital.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}