Stock market outlook 02/2026: Geopolitics dominates the headlines

February 4, 2026

What has been the focus in recent weeks

In many respects, the new year started as 2025 ended: turbulently. Venezuela, Greenland, Iran and a surprising nomination by Trump for the chairmanship of the US Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh, someone who stands for the independence of the Fed rather than for extreme or unconditional interest rate cuts.

Trump's rhetoric on Greenland in particular caused uncertainty, although he quickly put things into perspective again in his familiar manner.

' The global economy and the vast majority of large companies are doing well. '

Both the global economic data and the published corporate results and outlook paint a positive picture overall: both the global economy and the vast majority of large companies are doing well.

In the wake of geopolitical uncertainties, the Swiss franc continued to appreciate, which weighed on the performance of the Swiss stock market. And precious metals, above all gold and silver, initially performed extremely well in this context in January, until a marked short correction occurred. However, this is nothing unusual after such a rocket-like rise.

Our investment solutions and positioning

Our multi-asset solutions made further gains at the start of the year. This was not least due to the renewed very strong upward movement in gold. On the other hand, the US dollar came under renewed pressure against the Swiss franc in the second half of January. However, as we continue to maintain a very low foreign currency exposure, this movement only had a marginal impact on us. We are currently looking to slightly increase our equity allocation, although we continue to focus on investments with a low correlation to the equity market.

Our Cross-Asset Fund Navigator also rose noticeably in the new year and once again reached a new high. The fund's positive performance in January was primarily due to overweight positions in the industrials, commodities & basic materials and, most recently, energy sectors. Individual stocks such as Vodafone, Swatch, Cameco and Gilead also made substantial contributions. Market breadth continued to increase, with value stocks performing better – which supported the fund's portfolio positioning.

Our equity strategy Global Equity Trends also had a good start to 2026, with investments in the raw materials & basic materials, industrials and small caps sectors contributing the most. On the other hand, growth stocks and companies from the technology sector brought up the rear. At the turn of the month, we have therefore divested ourselves of growth stocks and added value stocks to the portfolio instead.

The Swiss equity market and therefore also our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection came under pressure in the second half of January in particular. Stocks such as the luxury goods group Richemont suffered the most, as did insurance stocks in general. On the other hand, the pharmaceutical giants Novartis and Roche continued to perform very well. Accelleron is also a new addition to the selection. The specialist in turbochargers for large engines was formed in 2022 from a spin-off from ABB and is one of the world's leading companies in its field.

Our equity strategy Global Equity Selection had a somewhat more difficult start to the year. Although companies such as ASML Holding, ABB and BHP Group made strong gains, growth and technology stocks dampened the monthly result. We therefore sold the software companies Intuit and Constellation at the start of the year. We made new investments in the German groups Fresenius SE and E.On. The American drinks manufacturer Monster Beverages is also back in the portfolio. All in all, the portfolio has been diversified somewhat more broadly.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

Overall, we remain positive for the 2026 investment year and expect a generally constructive environment. The latest economic data is solid – particularly in the US – as are the corporate results presented.

' 2026 should separate the wheat from the chaff in the field of AI '

As we expected, there are many indications that the wheat will be separated from the chaff this year when it comes to AI artificial intelligence: Who can really benefit from the sometimes immense investments in this area and who cannot is slowly beginning to emerge. It is important to keep a close eye on this in the coming weeks and pursue a selective approach.

With our diversified focus and equity investments, primarily in quality companies, as well as a high proportion of Swiss francs, we continue to feel well positioned in 2026.

Point Capital Group
4. February 2026

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)