Stock market outlook 06/2025: Positive markets despite uncertainties

June 5, 2025

What has been the focus in recent weeks

US tariff policy has also been the dominant topic in recent weeks. However, many investors are now increasingly assuming that the tariffs announced by Trump are primarily being used as a tactical means of exerting pressure. Large and threatening announcements are often followed by relativizations. As a result, the stock markets are no longer reacting as nervously as they did some time ago. This has contributed significantly to the very positive performance of the stock markets in recent weeks.

What is apparently disciplining Trump is interest rates in the USA. Investors are increasingly questioning the safety of US government bonds. Interest rates have risen accordingly, further increasing the interest burden. This is particularly problematic against the backdrop of high and rising government debt. In addition, a number of US economic indicators have been negative in recent days, putting Trump under further pressure. Meanwhile, China’s economy has also recently shown signs of weakness again.

Switzerland surprised with negative inflation. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore likely to cut interest rates further into negative territory – also in order to weaken the Swiss franc. Inflation is also falling in the EU, which is causing interest rates to fall further and supporting consumption.

Our investment solutions and positioning

Our multi-asset solutions have made further gains in recent weeks. As a general rule, the higher the equity allocation in May, the greater the growth – but also the greater the volatility. The main driver of the positive performance in recent weeks was clearly the equities asset class. International equities have performed significantly better than Swiss stocks. The biggest setback in the last month was in the gold position. However, after the strong rise since the beginning of the year, this is neither surprising nor a cause for concern.

In the equity strategy Global Equity Trends equity strategy, all of our investments made gains last month. The top positions were occupied by stocks from the communications, financial and industrial sectors. Real estate stocks brought up the rear – which is one of the reasons why we sold these investments. The portfolio now includes stocks from the technology, cyclical consumer goods and high-growth companies sectors. All in all, the portfolio is currently more offensive again – with a stronger bias towards growth stocks, but as always broadly diversified across many companies.

Our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection also recorded an increase in value in May. Cyclical stocks such as ABB and Richemont were not the only winners – more defensive stocks such as Swisscom and BKW were also in high demand. Insurance stocks such as Zurich Insurance Group and Swiss Re had a somewhat harder time over the month. However, both are still in a solid long-term uptrend and are likely to continue this after the current consolidation. We remain convinced that a broad mix across various sectors offers good opportunities in the current market situation.

The reporting season of the companies in our equity strategy Global Equity Selection can be seen as positive in retrospect. The vast majority exceeded expectations – which was rewarded in part with strong market reactions. Intuit, for example, a software company in the financial sector, gained over eight percent. On the other hand, we parted company with luxury goods manufacturer LVMH at the beginning of the month. The industry leader disappointed with negative figures and we are also skeptical about its further development. LVMH has now been replaced by ABB. Thanks to digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI), the Swiss industrial group has good opportunities in various market situations.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

We assume that a general starting point of “only” 10% import tariffs can be expected in the US – possibly with slightly higher tariffs for certain countries and sectors. But it is obvious: Trump must back away from his maximum demands. Contrary to his conviction that a trade war would prove dramatic for China, for example, the government there has turned the tables and introduced export controls on rare earths in order to put pressure on important US industries.

The next question is therefore: What is the impact of these tariffs on growth and inflation? We expect a slowdown in economic growth and continued stubborn inflation in the US. However, we have already emphasized several times that the historically proven high adaptability of companies and entire economic areas to changing conditions should not be underestimated. The erratic trade policy of the USA is forcing companies around the world to adapt their planning and supply chains. This is a great opportunity that many companies are already taking advantage of: There is greater diversification in terms of dependence on individual markets. And diversification is still the most important rule in risk management.

In view of the continuing uncertainty about the impact of tariffs and the erratic development of trade policy, investors should tend to take a cautious stance – with a clear, structured investment strategy and a focus on quality.

Point Capital Group
5. June 2025

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)