Stock market outlook 05/2026: Extreme volatility due to geopolitics

May 6, 2026

What has been the focus in recent weeks

The company results published in recent weeks paint a very positive picture overall. This has prompted investors to ignore the geopolitical risks. Accordingly, a veritable rally set in on the stock markets in April. And a closer look at the oil markets shows that prices are generally expected to normalize again shortly. But as great as the optimism is, the markets were still nervous. Trump's regular statements repeatedly led to changes in direction and a correspondingly high level of volatility on the markets.

' Not every billion-euro investment in AI will pay off in the end '

The majority of investors continue to believe that the gigantic investments in AI infrastructure will pay off. But this will certainly not be the case for all companies in this sector. Many previously debt-free companies, for example, are only able to make these investments at all thanks to loans they have taken out and are no longer generating a positive cash flow.

Our investment solutions and positioning

In April, our multi-asset solutions once again, with the main drivers being equities. While Swiss equities performed comparatively modestly, the US Nasdaq index, for example, rose by over 15 %, its best month since October 2002. Bonds ended the month virtually unchanged and once again proved to be a stabilizing element.

In our Cross-Asset Fund Navigator we managed to achieve a positive performance throughout the current year, mainly thanks to our overweight in energy and related sectors, which we had already built up in the last quarter of 2025. As we had already realized gains during the sharp price rises in January and February, we were able to use the liquidity to take new positions and increase existing exposures near the market lows in March and April.

Also in our equity strategy Global Equity Trends we can also look back on a successful April. With the exception of the positions in energy and healthcare, all exposures increased. As the energy sector is more likely to have taken a short breather, this position remains unchanged. However, the healthcare sector has now broken the trend and was therefore replaced by communications stocks at the end of the month. As a result, the focus has become slightly more offensive.

After the sharp sell-off in March, the Swiss equity market was somewhat friendlier in April and is currently trading in the region of the beginning of the year again. We were able to capitalize on this movement in our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection strategy thanks to targeted selection. Companies such as Accelleron Industries, Galderma and ABB were among the clear winners.

We recorded the strongest growth in value in our equity strategy Global Equity Selection. Driven by the strength of US technology companies, we were able to make strong gains, particularly in the first half of the month. Well-known names such as Alphabet (Google), Amazon and ASML were among the winners. On the other hand, more defensive companies such as E.ON and Fresenius performed modestly. In the current market situation, however, we consider diversification across different types of companies to be important.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

The development of the conflict in the Middle East remains the clear focus. Every statement Trump makes has the potential to move the markets significantly. A crucial point for the coming weeks: The storage capacities of the oil produced in the Gulf region are increasingly reaching their limits. At the same time, oil production cannot simply be cut back sharply. Oil fields cannot simply be closed or it can take up to years before an oil field that has been shut down can be put back into operation. The Strait of Hormuz must therefore be reopened soon, otherwise there is a risk of major disruptions in this respect too.

' The next market movements will not be determined by company figures, but by geopolitics and liquidity '

Now that corporate results have generally been positive, we must also take a look at liquidity on the markets. Both are key drivers for the development of the markets. And the central banks play a very central role here. In this context, it will be interesting to hear what the new chairman of the US Federal Reserve will say from mid-May. Kevin Warsh is not seen as someone who stands for 'unconditional' support of the markets with liquidity.

As mentioned in our last newsletter, market timing must be handled with care: The sharp advances on the stock markets in April clearly demonstrated this. It is more important than ever to take a differentiated view of the situation and not to ignore the opportunities alongside all the risks. Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic for the 2026 equity year. With a diversified positioning, we are well equipped for various scenarios.

Point Capital Group
6. May 2026

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)