Stock Market Outlook 07/2026: Stocks on the Rise – Gold Under Pressure

July 7, 2026

What has been the focus in recent weeks

June ended on a positive note for the stock markets. Numerous stock indices posted gains. The Swiss market also proved very resilient, and the SMI Swiss Market Index even reached an all-time high. A particularly notable development occurred in the precious metals market. Within just a few trading days, the price of gold plummeted, and silver was hit even harder.

A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report, along with a significantly more hawkish tone from the new chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, caused interest rates to rise and made gold—which does not pay interest—less attractive to investors. For the year, gold is thus down, after having posted gains of around 20 percent at one point.

However, gold has actually declined in virtually all scenarios over the past few weeks. At first, the situation in Iran took its toll, as investors took profits on liquid gold holdings to plug holes in their portfolios. Then came the more hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh. On top of that, the Gulf states—which traditionally invest their dollar surpluses in gold—faced a liquidity crunch due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Signs of a de-escalation in the Gulf then led to brief gains. Meanwhile, however, even a normalization of the situation is no longer enough to support the price of gold.

Our investment solutions and positioning

Our multi-asset solutions posted gains again in the second quarter despite a volatile stock market environment. The main drivers behind this positive performance were both international and Swiss equities. Our high tactical equity allocation provided support. While bonds continued to serve as a stabilizing factor, we saw a slight decline in gold. However, since we have continued to reduce this position over the past few months, this had virtually no impact on overall performance.

The underweight position in the 'Magnificent Seven'—which had already been established by the end of 2025—and the overweight position in selected semiconductor stocks supported the performance of the Cross-Asset Fund Navigator once again. Intel, Micron, and Western Digital performed particularly well, each gaining over 200% since the start of the year. At the same time, risk was actively managed through regular profit-taking. Stocks from companies in the healthcare, industrial, and materials sectors also made a significant contribution to the positive performance.

Our Equity Strategy Global Equity Trends has benefited in recent months from the strong performance of value stocks as well as the rally in the technology sector. Both groups of companies have had a significant positive impact on overall performance. In recent weeks, however, energy stocks have come under increasing pressure, which is why they have now been removed from the portfolio. At the start of the month, financial stocks and companies in the healthcare sector were added to the portfolio instead.

After a difficult first quarter, the Swiss stock market has shown its positive side in recent months. Our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection benefited disproportionately from this trend thanks to our strategic positioning. The companies that contributed the most were ABB, UBS, and Richemont. However, smaller companies such as Galderma and Accelleron Industries also played their part.

In this favorable environment for global equities, our equity strategy Global Equity Selection post strong gains. Here, too, ABB was among the top performers alongside ASML Holding and Monster Beverage. Microsoft's performance, on the other hand, was somewhat disappointing. From a long-term perspective, however, we still view the current decline as more of a correction within an intact uptrend. Overall, we feel well-positioned with our current portfolio, but we reserve the right to react quickly to changing market conditions.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

In the coming weeks, the markets will focus primarily on U.S. economic data and, consequently, on the prospect of potential interest rate hikes. As is well known, 'everything' hinges on interest rates: Depending on how they develop, certain stock segments will be in greater demand than others, and the same applies to all other asset classes. It is important to be prepared for various scenarios. From a more global perspective, it can be noted that the U.S. economy is currently booming, Europe is moving at a snail's pace, and China is stagnating.

'It is not forecasts that create value, but consistent action.'

As always, we closely monitor these issues on your behalf and, through active management, ensure that we can respond to changing circumstances even on short notice. Our goal is always to capitalize on opportunities while not neglecting the risks.

Point Capital Group
July 7, 2026

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)