Stock Market Outlook 09/2026: Is Another Interest Rate Hike on the Horizon?

September 8, 2026

What has been the focus in recent weeks

In August, too, several issues caused volatility in the financial markets—and once again, the U.S. was at the center of it all.

The chip giant Nvidia was the first to provide a boost. The company reported strong financial results and, at the same time, offered a positive outlook. The markets responded accordingly, and the success story surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) continued for the time being.

There was also particular anticipation surrounding the remarks by the new chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. His comments were interpreted by the markets as relatively hawkish and heightened expectations of a possible interest rate hike in September. Consequently, the stock markets came under pressure at times.
The debate over interest rates was further fueled by a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report. While this generally points to the robustness of the U.S. economy, it was initially received less positively by the financial markets: A strong labor market makes it harder for the Fed to combat inflation and thus tends to increase the scope for continuing a restrictive monetary policy. Geopolitical tensions also remained high. The tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the associated uncertainties regarding oil supplies led to increased volatility at times in August.

Despite this challenging environment, our investment strategies performed well overall.

Our investment solutions and positioning

Our multi-asset solutions posted solid results in August. Performance was driven in particular by equity investments and the strong performance of gold. Global small-cap stocks and high-dividend companies also made positive contributions, while defensive sectors such as European utilities and Swiss bonds slightly dampened performance. Due to the balanced portfolio allocation and the generally stable market environment, no position changes were made last month. The strategies thus remain broadly diversified and well-positioned to capitalize on further market opportunities while keeping risks in check.

Our Cross-Asset Fund Navigator benefited in August from positive contributions across various levels of the portfolio. At the asset allocation level, the 7% allocation to precious metals in particular made a significant contribution to performance. At the sector level, investments in healthcare, energy, and selected technology segments delivered strong results. Stock selection also paid off: Amgen, Gilead, Bunge, Qualys, and Qualcomm posted price gains of between 10% and 25% over the course of the month, significantly outperforming their respective sectors. August thus demonstrated once again the added value that can be derived from the combination of flexible asset allocation, targeted sector positioning, and active individual stock selection.

The Equity Strategy Global Equity Trends benefited last month from broad-based price gains across its strategic sector and factor exposures. Key performance drivers included companies in the materials, global technology, and value sectors. Our recent positioning in global energy stocks also made a positive contribution to the overall result. The portfolio remained unchanged at the end of the month, as the existing allocation continues to reflect current prevailing market trends well. The strategy thus remains consistently focused on those sectors that exhibit high relative strength and can respond flexibly to changes in global macro trends and sector dynamics.

For our equity strategy Swiss Equity Selection August proved to be more challenging. UBS deserves special mention for its strong performance; following robust quarterly results, it emerged as the top performer in the portfolio. In contrast, the two pharmaceutical heavyweights, Roche and Novartis, temporarily weighed on the portfolio's performance. We strategically leveraged these market movements to make adjustments within the portfolio. We slightly reduced our positions in the industrial conglomerate ABB and the building materials manufacturer Holcim. The funds freed up were used to increase our allocation to Roche at a more attractive valuation level. In doing so, we are specifically strengthening the more defensive portion of the portfolio while simultaneously capitalizing on what we view as interesting long-term valuation opportunities offered by the Swiss healthcare company.

The equity strategy Global Equity Selection. Among the strongest contributors were the mining company BHP Group and the medical technology company ResMed. At the same time, heavyweights from the U.S. technology sector, such as Microsoft and Nvidia, supported the performance. In contrast, individual stocks such as Alphabet and Galderma performed somewhat weaker and slightly dampened the overall result. No transactions were carried out during the month. In our view, the existing portfolio allocation remains compelling.

What next? And what needs to be considered?

The coming days are likely to set the tone for the financial markets. On September 11, the latest inflation data will be released in the U.S. It is expected to play a key role in determining the course the Federal Reserve will take at its meeting on September 15 and 16. A further slowdown in inflation could ease concerns about additional interest rate hikes and give stock markets new room to maneuver. By contrast, a surprisingly high inflation rate is likely to reinforce expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy and weigh particularly heavily on interest-rate-sensitive market segments.

'The trend in oil prices also remains a key factor.'

The geopolitical situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has a direct impact on energy prices and, consequently, potentially on future inflation trends. At the same time, economic developments are taking on increasing political significance—particularly in light of the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Despite these uncertainties, the global economy remains robust. Another positive sign is the recent broadening of the stock market rally: the upward trend is no longer driven solely by a handful of large-cap companies. An increasing number of stocks and sectors are showing positive momentum. In our view, this is fundamentally a constructive sign.

Against this backdrop, we are maintaining our current strategy. At the same time, we continue to closely monitor both monetary policy and geopolitical developments. Especially in an environment where expectations can change rapidly, flexibility, consistent risk management, and active portfolio management remain crucial.

Point Capital Group
September 8, 2026

Our experts: Jules Kappeler (CEO) & Christian Sutter (Portfolio Manager)